Niche Writing Style Denice SandersonHow Does The Future of Venezuela Affect The USA
The United States (US), as an active actor of the International Political System (IPS), has a variety of policy options that can be utilized to establish a pragmatic, realistic relationship with Venezuela and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Most, if not all, of these options revolve around the premise that the actors of the US National Security System (NSS) have the ability and the time to focus on policies that are optimal for US national interests. There are varied facets of the broad purpose behind US foreign policy as a whole. These aspects include defense of the homeland, economic well-being, favorable world order and the promotion of respect for democracy and human rights. Therefore, any policy option(s) implemented by US Decision Makers (DM) must be fashioned to reflect and foster the US nationa1 interests. The very nature of US interests dictates that policies to be implemented should promote regional stability and security to include all of the Western Hemisphere. Potential policy options to be considered should be viewed and evaluated using the three interlocking "social systems" of the Input-Output design of the Policy Making and Process (PMP) model. The policy options available to the US as regards to Venezuela are:
Of the policy options available to the US Decision Maker, the one most likely to be chosen is the one of Positive Diplomacy. An awareness of the influences of the actors of the IPS, Domestic Political System (DPS), and National Security System (NSS) is crucial for the DM to correctly make decisions involving national security. For any foreign policy to be effective, the DM must have a realization of situational factors and perspectives and their influence on the formation and implementation of that foreign policy. The influence of various actors of the IPS should play a very large role in the shaping of positive diplomacy towards Venezuela. President Chavez's interactions and relationships with numerous other nation-states of the IPS could prove to be of value to US interests. Some of these nation-states, such as the United Kingdom, are allies of the US while others, such as Cuba, are not. Other nation-state actors that President Chavez has ties with also have positive relations with the US. Some nations, such as China, have extensive economic ties with the US even while not being considered a close friend. By working through a mutually friendly third party nation-state, any positive dialogue might be better received by Venezuelan President Chavez. The US should especially seek the support and assistance of regional southern neighbors to aid with the implementation of a positive foreign policy. The focus of this assistance should be the fact that hemispheric peace and profitable trade practices would be to the benefit of everyone involved. Any strategies of positive diplomacy should also address any issues of mutual concern. Some of the issues to be items of negotiation should include regional and border security, the environment, immigration, energy, drugs, terrorism, and the spread of infectious disease. Indeed, the above global issues could be the mutual topics with which to open positive dialogue with Venezuela and to begin the implementation of a positive diplomatic policy. President Chavez appears to have a foreign policy of seeking alliance with IPS actors known to be unfriendly toward the US. These actors in the past have included Fidel Castro, Saddam Hussein, Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega, Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe and the President of Iran. However, President Chavez's association with non-allies of the US should not deter a policy of positive diplomacy. The US has successfully conducted affairs with other nation-states whose governments, in either words or deed, have challenged our national interests. Perhaps of even more importance to the promotion of a positive US foreign policy are the actors of Intergovernmental Organizations (lGO). One of these actors is the United Nations (UN). The UN is reflective of US values, namely economic prosperity, peace, and public health. Both Venezuela and the US are active members of the UN. This common stage between the two countries should be an avenue used to promote positive dialogue between the two countries. Formal UN interests that are common to both the US and Venezuela could be a viable platform to forge mutual ties between the two countries. Also of note regarding nation-states involved with IGO's, President Chavez's interest in President Lula of Brazil may not be that of friendly neighbor and business partner. Brazil's consideration as a member of the Security Council seems to be part of the attraction for President Chavez. Current positive US-Brazil relations could help pave the way for positive relations with Venezuela. At the same time, other US-allied nationstates of the IPS could offer their assistance to promote positive US-lead dialogue with President Chavez and his country. Another powerful actor of the 100 is the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). As a founding member of OPEC, Venezuela should be invited to participate in a regional dialogue on energy security. This gesture from Washington would help to demonstrate to the region and the world that the US is attempting to work pragmatically with Venezuela. Due to the oil-based co-dependent relationship between the two countries, discussions on shared energy interests could further strengthen positive ties between the two. US national interest would be better served by such positive ties due to the fact that neither the US nor Venezuela is in a position to end their energy relationship with the other in the foreseeable future. An IGO actor of the IPS that has recently been prominent as regards to Venezuela is the Organization of American States (OAS). Venezuela and the US are both members in good standing with the ~AS. The OAS was on hand to monitor the recall election results in 2004 in which Hugo Chavez was validated as the legitimate elected President of Venezuela. Another 100 actor on hand to verify the validity of the 2004 recall referendum was the Carter Center. The US should take the opportunity afforded by the recall referendum results and the recent December 3rd re-election of President Chavez to offer formal congratulations. By acknowledging that Venezuela's head of state has been fairly elected and re-elected, the US will be seen as promoting and supporting democracy and democratic governance. Any US-Venezuela diplomacy tool should seek to positively utilize the bonds already existing between the US and global IGOs. The European Union (EU), an IGO has expressed interest in investment and financial opportunities in Venezuela. The US has strong leadership and economic ties with the EU that can be utilized as channels of positive communication with regard to business opportunities in Venezuela. Showing an interest in helping to promote positive growth in Venezuela’s economy (other than in oil exportation) would further promote friendly relations between the US and President Chavez. There are several Nongovernmental Organizations (NGO) of the IPS that could playa role in the promotion of positive overtures by the US. The multinational corporations (MNC) Royal Dutch Shell and British Petroleum along with Texaco, Chevron, and Mobil are now performing some of the functions formerly handled by the Venezuela oil company, PDVSA. These MNC's, especially the companies representing big US oil interest, could stress to Venezuela and President Chavez how mutual cooperation and smart trade policies would benefit both the US and Venezuela. Equally important, the big oil company NGO's would benefit from a positive relationship between the US and Venezuela. Oil production technology and information exchanges to modernize Venezuela's oil industry would only be improved by positive ties between US and Venezuela energy officials. Also, the specter of President Chavez nationalizing Venezuela's oil fields would perhaps not loom so large if positive dialogue existed between the US and Venezuela. The Revolutionary Forces of Columbia (FARC) is an NGO of the IPS that is of mutual concern to both the US and Venezuela. FARC is Columbia's oldest, largest, and best equipped Marxist insurgency group. One of the sources of funds for this group is drug trafficking to the US and other parts of the globe. "Plan Colombia", the US lead plan to combat the south and Central America cocaine trade, includes Columbia and Venezuela as participants. President Chavez's perception that "Plan Columbia" is a military plot to pre-position military forces on the border of Venezuela could be altered with meaningful, open dialogue. While Venezuela is not a significant source for cocaine, the country is noted to be a major highway for F ARC drug smugglers to move their product to the rest of the world. Cooperation between officials of the US and Venezuela is crucial if "Plan Columbia" is to succeed. The successful reduction of drug-smuggling through Venezuela would be of benefit to everyone involved. A major supplier of illegal narcotics to the US would be interrupted and Venezuela would gain international acclaim as being Tough on Drugs. Regardless of the availability and usefulness of the actors of the IPS, any policy option adopted by the US will be meaningless unless all the actors of the Domestic Political System (DPS) and National Security System (NBS) are fully supportive of the policy. Promoting a policy of positive diplomacy first and foremost includes avoidance of any confrontational rhetoric by anyone. All members of the US DPS and NSS must avoid counterproductive wars of words. Even though US-Venezuela relations have deteriorated sharply in recent years and are now characterized by mutual suspicion and tension, pursuing a positively charged diplomatic relationship is wise. Once the Decision Maker (DM) has chosen the policy option of positive diplomacy, actions and words of the actors of the DPS and NSS should reflect this policy. The underlying issues of US policy should be the focus of all US pronouncements regarding Venezuela. These issues are the need to respect democratic governance, to protect human rights, and to promote socioeconomic advancement The cognitive perspective of President Bush, the DM, should be noted and dealt with. President Chavez's personal verbal attacks on President Bush, while distracting and unsettling, should be ignored by everyone associated with US policy making and processes. The US public, another actor of the DPS would do well to emulate the DM's lead in avoiding wars of words. In the not too distant past, a prominent US citizen actor of the DPS came out publicly in favor of assassinating President Chavez. In August of 2005, televangelist Pat Robertson views as expressed on the "700 Club" television show were that a clandestine action would eliminate President Chavez as a potential threat and prevent a "200 Billion War". Within 24 hours, two key actors of the NSS, the Department of Defense (DOD) and Department of State (DOS), publicly announced political assassination by the US to be illegal. Even before the "Pat Robertson" incident, President Chavez has accused the Bush administration of assassination attempts regarding him. A policy of positive diplomacy would make crystal clear that the US has no intention of intervening forcibly to change the head of state in Venezuela either in an overtly or covertly manner. Two prominent actors of the DPS view President Chavez as a problem regarding US national security. Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) testified at a hearing that President Chavez poses a threat to US interest and to regional security by moving Venezuela away from the path of democracy. Senator Norm Coleman (D-MN) echoed Senator Nelson sentiment by identifying Venezuela as "the greatest test of democracy in North America". Whether or not such statements were accurate, testifying before such a powerful actor of the DPS as the Senate can prove to be a distracting situational factor for the DM. Other DPS actors have chosen to take an approach more in line with a policy of positive diplomacy. A group of Congressmen known as the "Boston Group" have been attempting to strengthen ties between the US and Venezuela. Congressmen Bill Delahunt (D-MA). Greg Meeks (D-NY), and Cass Ballenger (R-NC) have formed a bi-partisan group that focuses on providing guidance on improving the governance of Venezuela by good legislation. At the same time, this group of politicians takes no sides with regard to President Chavez. The entertainment industry and the media also have actors that can prove to be valuable or useful to a policy of positive diplomacy. As seen in the case of Danny Glover, Harry Bellafonte, and Don King, any public support for Venezuela's and President Chavez's social programs for their country should be viewed in a positive light. The type of social projects and economic integration spearheaded by the Venezuela government and President Chavez deserve the acknowledgement and encouragement of the US government and people. Any actions of publicly visible individual actors of US organized interest groups should be evaluated for their effect regarding US foreign policy. Two such individual actors have received media coverage recently. Cindy Sheehen, a peace activist with Gold Star Families for Peace and Jesse Jackson of the Rainbow Coalition have both publicly voiced their support for President Chavez. The media, another actor of the DPS, gave news coverage to both Sheehan and Jackson regarding their respective meetings with President Chavez. This media coverage shed a positive light on President Chavez and his government's generosity to the poor of the US. This favorable exposure of President Chavez to the US citizenry should be capitalized upon by US foreign policy makers. By insisting on reciprocity of "good deeds", the US would then be able to offer aid and assistance to Venezuela's poor. Just what type of appropriate aid should be offered could be determined by the DM and the DM's staff at the time of the offering. Media coverage of the event would show to the world that the US foreign policy of positive diplomacy towards Venezuela is sincere. All media views and observations should be taken into consideration by the DM when forming a foreign policy. By analyzing facts exposed by actors of the media along with analysis of facts gathered by US Intelligence agencies, the US DM should get a good idea of the national objectives of President Chavez. This analysis would assist the rational actor to form strategies and procedures that would promote a foreign policy of a positive nature towards Venezuela. The DM should and must take great care in assuring that cognitive limitations do not affect the formation and analysis of foreign policy with regard to Venezuela. President Bush would seem to hold President Chavez in somewhat low regard. This emotional factor should have no bearing on what is best for US national interest. A prominent situational factor that very strongly speaks for positive relations with Venezuela is the state of the economy of the US. President Bush is well aware that the price of gas at the pump is costly for most Americans. Any foreign policy aimed at Venezuela should be firmly rooted in keeping the commercial ties between the two countries on a status quo. Another situational factor that the DM has to take into account is distraction of himself and the distractions of all others involved in the decision making process. The condition of the US political and security arena is, has been, and will continue to be a pressing topic of concern for present and future DM's. The war in Iraq, the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and the resulting "Black Eye" to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) are factors that have taken up much of President Bush's time. Also the recent changes in leadership of the DPS actors are distracting. The recent US elections changed the balance of leadership in Washington away from the Republicans to favor of the Democratic Party. The war in Afghanistan and Iraq along with the Global War on Terror has greatly stretched the resources of a significant actor in the NSS, the DOD. Taking the state of the US DOD into consideration, any foreign policy that the DM chooses mandates a consideration of defense resource allocation. A policy of positive diplomacy with its open dialogue between countries would hopefully ease any tension between the US and Venezuela. This easement of tensions should avoid placing any more strain on an already overburdened US DOD. Open dialogue with President Chavez and Washington would shed light on the rationale behind Venezuela's recent purchase of military accoutrements. Indeed, recognition of President Chavez's underlying reasons to buy attack helicopters, MIG's, and Russian assault rifles would overwhelmingly be in the best interest of the US. Open discussions with Venezuela would allow the DM to determine if President Chavez's reasons for the bolstering of Venezuela's military are valid. President Chavez has claimed that Venezuela needs a "People's Army". He has asserted that the Venezuelan army will be larger with a reserve component that will perform civic as well as military duties. The Venezuelan President also has claimed that Venezuela has the right to defend itself and this has been echoed by other nation-states in the region and abroad. Potential and assured changes in the IPS, DPS, NSS or situational factors have the ability to greatly alter any analysis of the relationship between the US and Venezuela from the current state of affairs. Either positive or negative facts gleaned from this altered analysis could have the power to dictate that the DM develop, implement and gather feedback from an alternate foreign policy. By identifying and analyzing possible major alterations to factors or relationships involved within the PMP Input-Output Model, the US Decision Maker can use this knowledge to craft updated policy options and goals to implement any new foreign policy. One change in the arena of the IPS that comes immediately to mind is that of the state of affairs in the nation-state of Cuba. Press reports reveal that Fidel Castro has been ill in the recent past. Also commonly known is the fact that Castro is in the twilight years of life. In the past, President Chavez has had frequent meetings with Castro and by all appearances is a good friend with Castro. Of course, this friendship could be based on the fact that Cuba has greatly benefited from relations with Venezuela. Cuba's export to Venezuela has been much needed doctors, agricultural experts, athletic coaches and military officers. In exchange for these professional advisors, oil-backed Venezuelan currency has spurred the Cuban economy. Revaluation of the Cuban peso has occurred with the influx of Venezuelan money. Even with the amount of information that is known regarding the relationship between Castro and President Chavez, there is still informational uncertainty about the actual kinship that exists between the two men and their respective countries. With Fidel Castro's death, the DM of the US will be faced with making a choice of policy options towards Venezuela based on President Chavez's actions in the days that follow Castro's demise. President Chavez has been documented as already claiming to be Castro's political successor in the South American region. The fact that Castro has been antagonistic toward the US for the whole of his leadership is a well known fact. Therefore, President Chavez's claims of successor-ship to the Castro reign do not appear to be in the US best interests. At this stage the DM will have to evaluate the current policy of positive diplomacy toward Venezuela in terms of how the interests of the US were served during the implementation of that policy. The evaluation should determine if the costs in terms of resources expended balanced the establishment of a workable, realistic and practical relationship between the US and Venezuela. The measure of success of this relationship based on pragmatism would be viewed as to whether or not the best interests of the US were served with regard to defense issues, economic well-being and regional stability. With the death of Castro and President Chavez stepping into his "revolutionary successor" shoes, a foreign policy based on positive diplomacy would still be appropriate for US national interests. As long as Chavez does not take steps that fundamentally threaten essential US interests in Latin America, abroad, and at home, the US should demonstrate its willingness to further promote and maintain positive ties between the two countries. However, should the situation become one in which US – Venezuela relations deteriorate beyond one of mutual suspicion and tension to one in which US interests are threatened, US foreign policy for Venezuela must be adjusted in order to provide for a more stable world stage. The form of threat to US interest will determine the foreign policy to be shaped by the DM. One threat to be considered with President Chavez considering himself to be South America's new "revolutionary leader" is that of an interruption of the oil ~based trade between the US and Venezuela. President Chavez has voiced support for a South American solidarity that does not include trade with the US. The US should not discount the possibility of a dramatic gesture by President Chavez to abruptly shut down supplies of oil bound for the US. If this were to occur, considerable strain would be placed on the US economy until a source for replacement oil was secured. This would be a very distracting situational factor that would have a strong influence on any forthcoming foreign policy options that the DM would implement. An interruption of the 12-13% volume of oil that the US receives from Venezuela would temporarily place strains on the US energy security. However, this would be temporary as the deficit of oil supplied by Venezuela could be attenuated by an increased supply of oil from other OPEC countries. Regardless of the outcome regarding the resolution of any hardships imposed by the lack of Venezuelan oil, the foreign policy with regard to Venezuela should still be based on positive diplomacy. Increased press coverage of President Chavez and Venezuela could pose a change in the DPS that would either assist or hinder any policy option that the DM plans to implement. At the present time, US media is occupied with press coverage of events more closely aligned with recent US public interests. Even with warnings from NGO Human Rights Watch that President Chavez is developing a dictatorship, press coverage of Chavez's presidency is usually of a positive nature. The fact that President Chavez appears to function within the boundaries of international law while at the same time addressing poverty issues at home and abroad lend credence to positive press reviews. Events and government polices of Venezuela may receive drastically increased media scrutiny in the near future. The Washington Post reported on December 18 of this year that President Chavez's political party has made public its plan to dissolve, thus laying the foundation for a single ruling party. The other 23 parties that support Chavez's government will be invited to join the new United Socialist Party of Venezuela. Along with this announcement, President Chavez announced a plan to hold a referendum next year on allowing him to run for the presidency as many times as he wishes. It remains to be seen whether the two very recent press reports will spur more in-depth reporting on Venezuela by the US media. Single party rule with a no-term-limit presidency is not in the best interests of democratic government. The American public gets most of its information regarding global events through the news media, much of it from television. An increase in this media coverage with regards to Venezuela and President Chavez's political goals could shake up the apparent US indifference regarding those goals. By the media exposing Venezuelan politics to US public scrutiny, any of those policies that would seem to not be in the best interests of the US or that would change the current world order could be brought into the light of day. A foreign policy of positive diplomacy and its application of using communication to resolve disputes and other controversies is the most favorable choice of foreign options available to the US. Diplomacy, backed by America's strength, plays an indispensable role in the promotion of US interests abroad. The highest possible standards should shape and distinguish the day to day practice of a policy of positive diplomacy. With these thoughts in mind, there is one potential change in the IPS arena that would drastically alter a US policy of positive diplomacy. Should Venezuela and President Chavez decide to threaten US national security by the exportation of terrorism, communism, or any other politics that threaten life in the US, a foreign policy that revolves around the threat of force would be appropriate. Along with a policy of forceful intimidation to affect behavior change, the US DM should make crystal clear to President Chavez that US resolve based on the defense of the homeland could lead to the use of force to protect the US way of life. At the present time a positively charged diplomatic approach toward Venezuela and its leader is the most reasonable and practical avenue for the US to utilize. By the avoidance of confrontational rhetoric, supporting President Chavez public policies that fall in line with US interest, capitalizing on favorable press opportunities, and utilizing third-party involvement by nation-states and IOOs, the US should have a stable, pragmatic, mutually supportive relationship with Venezuela that will last long into the foreseeable future. Go Back To Denice Sanderson's Writing Style Blog |